Red Rocks, 2009

In October, Bill and I rock-climbed a few days at Red Rocks as an alternative after heavy snow-fall discouraged us from doing the Rae Lakes loop.

Climbing Johnny Vegas. The balanced rock on the left is pretty cool. If you look closely, you can see the V of a rappel anchor.

We had views all the way to Las Vegas city every day. Behind Bill snacking, I could see the Vegas skyline, though it is not visible in the picture.

Henri Rappelling off "Head Case," and Bill enjoying the wind tunnel in Panamint Valley. There were a couple of jet pilots playing around in their tin cans, but it was hard to get a picture.

Defensive Keynesians

It has been interesting to watch the economics debate during the recent crisis. What I have noticed is that a Keynesian approach is used as a matter of course by the Federal government, which is depressing, but also that this time around, Keynesians have been in need of defending their ideas, which is encouraging.

One knee-jerk Keynesian is Jim Jubak, who writes for MSN Money. There are parallels between Jubak and Keynes. Like Keynes, Jubak is a successful investor. Like Keynes, Jubak is not an economist. Like Keynes, this does not stop him from making economics commentary.

In a recent article, Jubak blamed a reduction in Federal spending for the recession of 1937. He claimed that Federal spending decreased by 18% in 1937. This did not sound right, so I looked it up. I collected data for receipts (Recs), outlays (outs), spending change (inc), GDP, GDP Increase (GInc) and spending as percent of GDP (S/GDP) for the years 1935-1939:

Year	Recs	Outs	Inc	GDP	GInc	S/GDP
1935	3,609	6,412	-1.97%	$73.30	11.06%	8.75%
1936	3,923	8,228	28.32%	$83.80	14.32%	9.82%
1937	5,387	7,580	-7.88%	$91.90	9.67%	8.25%
1938	6,751	6,840	-9.76%	$86.10	-6.31%	7.94%
1939	6,295	9,141	33.64%	$92.20	7.08%	9.91%

Federal spending shrank 8% in 1937, not 18% as Jubak claims in his article. There are also several items he omits from his account. In 1935, when Federal spending was first cut since 1927, the economy grew by 11%. In the period he describes, 1937 and 1938, while spending slowed, receipts grew dramatically (37% and 25%), representing a large, effective tax increase. Lastly, the economy grew an impressive 10% in 1937, so while there was a recession later in the year, a better understanding of how the growth and the spending were aligned in time is necessary.

Dear Economist Column

I did not know this: Tim Harford has a "Dear Economist" column. It is much better than the "Dear Aunt" type columns it mimics, by being both more entertaining and more useful.

Not only that, but Tim Harford gets more interactive by allowing readers to respond. The last exchange (June 14) is particularly funny.

Digital Vandalism

I have in the past resisted security software (read: anti-virus packages), and relied instead on caution and manual system monitoring to ward against malware. Within the last couple of years, either Windows got too complicated, the malware got too sophisticated, or I became too rusty. I got infected by several viruses.

One of the reasons I am reluctant to use security software is that they typically install several services, an email plugin, browser plugins, and some of them even mini-port drivers. It would take a pretty nasty virus to have worse impact on your system! (Of course, security software do not propagate aggressively). I wish there was a passive security package I could run only whenever I choose.

I installed Free avg, then deactivated the extraneous services, drivers and plugins, thereby getting almost what I wanted. Yet, after several scans, deletions, and reboots, I still had a problem that the viruses had introduced, which was that I could not start certain programs or processes, such as procexp.exe, regedit.exe or even the anti-virus scanner and update programs.

At first, I thought that avg had missed a virus. I tried to deactivate or kill different processes that might host a virus, but still I had the problem. I could run the programs after I renamed them -- for instance, I could not run "procexp.exe," but I could run the same program renamed to "sysinternals_procx.exe." Thinking that there must be a malware system-hook running in one of the Windows processes, I checked each one and searched its image for 'procexp.exe,' still without finding it.

Searching the registry instead, I found that the virus had added the programs I could not start to this key:

HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\Windows NT\CurrentVersion\Image File Execution Options

Each program had a "Debugger" subkey, with the "ntsd -d" options. 'ntsd' is the debugger (NT Symbolic Debugger), and -d tells it to attach to the kernel debugger -- which typically will not be present, thus failing the launch altogether.

I wrote this up in case you have, or get, the same problem. If so, just delete the 'Debugger' subkey under each program found at the registry key indicated above.

Since I am on the subject: Reading about convictions against black hats in the news, I have several times been disappointed at their light sentences. I looked it up for this post, and according to the Cybercrime watch list, it seems as if courts are issuing punishments more in line with the severity of the crimes now. The author of "Melissa" was caught and convicted, the damage was estimated to US$80M, and the perpetrator got 20 months in jail and a $5,000 fine.

I think the damage is underestimated, though. They have to account for all the money and time we spent in prevention. Symantec makes $6 billion a year (mostly) selling anti-virus software. A big portion of that is a dead-weight loss we spend in protection against the digital vandals.

Red and Blue Conspiracy Theories

I mostly find partisan bickering entertaining, except for the end result. A fellow blogger made an interesting comparison between the 'Obama is not American' and '9/11 was an inside job' conspiracies. Interesting reading.

Read in Economist

The Economist is my favorite news-magazine. It is fact- and reason-based, with a broad scope, and best of all, the editors have a sense of humor.

Here's a quote from a letter they published in the current issue:

When I considered taking a degree in economics almost 50 years ago, I
was told that the exam questions would be the same from year to year, but that
the correct answers would differ each year.

The Art of Waitering

I have alluded before to the passive style of Asian waitering. It can mess with your experience. Say, for instance, you misunderstand the menu and order a plain steak with no sides. A Chinese waiter will happily serve it, no comments. One of those friendly American waitresses would no doubt say something like: "just so you know, the steak doesn't come with anything." A Danish waiter would say: "Det giver sgu da ikke nogen mening, prøv nu lige at tage dig sammen."

Today I experienced some world-class dining in San Francisco, with professionally trained waiters. Though I prefer Asian to European food, I think the European tradition has the waitering art down. Food was served, cups were filled, plates removed, etc, with no interruption in conversations and you barely even noticed. With the best service, you don't have to flag, your needs are anticipated.

I once saw a movie about a young man tending hospitality school somewhere in Switzerland. He was doing well, but his friend had been there for years and failed several exams. By the time our hero takes the exam himself, he is doing it with the laggard friend. The referee poses the question: to which side should wine be served. They both agree that wine should be served to the right of the guest. The referee then asks if there are any exceptions. The laggard cannot think of any, but our hero says that you can serve wine to the left of the guest, if he or she is leaning to the right in conversation. Our hero passes and the laggard fails again.

It is a fictional movie with a dramatic story, but I believe they correctly showed the expected attention to detail in the high-end waiting profession.

Plant Resurrections

I have two examples of resurrecting plants. One is a gift, the other represents a moral dillema.

The gift is a Rose of Jericho, which I got at Christmas, from my step-brother and his wife as my almondgift (transliterated from the Danish). Though I knew that it was going to unfold, I was impressed with the dramatic transition. The two pictures below are taken just a couple of hours apart.


For the record, I believe a fascination with plant life and organic wonders is perfectly compatible with technophilia. I'm a geek, through and through.

My Moral Dillema comes from a vow to never kill a tree, which I made when I was 18. Though I'm still an environmentalist, I am much more sanguine now than I was then. Still, a vow is a vow.

Last year, PG&E came to take down a dying oak that were threatening some power lines. I was notified, but not asked, so I did not feel conflicted about this part. Hower, the stump is sprouting.



I would really prefer to see the tree die, and make room new shrubs and trees, such as the new maple I planted nearby. I wonder if killing off the sprouts is a violation of my vow. If I weed the sprouts, am I killing the tree, or am I killing weeds?

Accolades to the Chinese People

Though generalizations can be dangerous, peoples of different countries develop reputations for a reason. This is true even for large countries like Japan and France, but the people of really huge countries, like the USA and China, defy universal description.

My fascination with these two countries is linked with the range of attitudes, beliefs and cultures you meet in either place, though the specifics obviously vary.

In China, I met people of all kinds: brusque and friendly, rude and polite, busy and patient, nasty and sweet. Though the crowds were bothersome, and the pace and jostling anywhere there was a line got downright uncomfortable, sooner or later somebody would walk up to me and offer assistance. This happened so consistently to me that I developed an affection, which, though the samaritans were obviously a small minority, I tend to bestow on the Chinese people as a whole.

A good example was when I got off an inter-city bus in Chengdu, trying to get back to my hostel. I ended up at a different transit station than the one I left from. I had no idea where I was. This transit station was informal, with a line of bus stops down a main road, no central office or billboards to get information from. I got a fresh bite of pineapple from a street vendor, which I needed after the ride inside the hot, poorly ventilated bus, then looked around to see about taxis.

It was thick with people, spilling into the streets and not really thinning out anywhere within sight, so I hesitated a bit, wanting to determine the best direction to get away so that I had a chance of getting a cab. Then a car pulled up, and the driver, a bit chubby, got out and started talking to me in Mandarin, with his passenger yelling unintelligbly from the car. Since I could not understand him, he called out to others and soon a young, adult but tiny student appeared, acting as interpreter. They asked me where I was going, so I pulled out a map and showed the location of the hostel.

I tend to take map-reading for granted, but though this particular city map was in Mandarin, it took some discussion among the Chinese, in the group that had gathered around, to figure out where I was going. The driver then, through the tiny interpreter, offered to take me for fifty yuan. I immediately said no, since I knew I was close and a taxi ride should have been about half of that. I also would have hesitated to get in an unmarked car with two strangers, but since I generally felt safe throughout China, this was only my second thought.

The conversation went back and forth for a while, with more people joining us. The student politely and diffidently translated questions for the others, without responding to me, possibly because his English was poor. Several times, the group broke out in laughter. I had noticed before that the Chinese find a curious mirth in the presence of foreigners. Often when I walked into a store or restaurant, the clerk or waiter would suppress a giggle. Not in an offensive way, as I could tell. They just found it funny that they were serving a tourist.

A girl appeared and the driver said something to her, and then she asked me what I needed. I had to tell her a couple of times, though her English seemed a little better than that of the small guy. Once she understood that I wanted a cab, she told me she could help me and gently dragged me off by the arm.

The girl and her tall boyfriend, a guy I only noticed then, got me away from the crowds. I cannot describe how kind they were. They exhausted their vocabulary to try to talk with me, about where I was from and what I was doing in China. They refused to accept a ride, though I thought that was the least I could do and all three of us could easily fit in a cab. They were not going to leave me or let me go until they had gotten me a cab.

We eventually found a clear spot with little competition, so that soon a taxi stopped for us. The boyfriend negotiated with the driver, his whole lanky body leaning through the window, to make sure I would not get cheated. We said our heartfelt goodbyes and I was off.

This post is in honor of all those kind Chinese people, including some special friends I met, who helped make my time in China so extra-special.

Grook for Today

Piet Hein is famous for his Grooks. Here is a timeless grook pertinent to me these days.

T. T. T.

Put up in a place
where it's easy to see
the cryptic admonishment
T. T. T.

When you feel how depressingly
slowly you climb,
it's well to remember that
Things Take Time.

China Pictures and Great Pop

I want to write more about China, but in the meantime, I put a Picasaweb album together with about a dozen select China pictures for your enjoyment.

Magnificent China

As a bonus, I want to share a link to David Brin's essay on Tolkien: Enemy of Progress. Tolkien's seminal work, Lord of the Rings, is one of my favorite books of all time. I hold The Enlightenment to be the foundation of modern progress, freedom and prosperity. Thus, I enjoyed Brin's juxtaposition of the two. Plus, having your most cherished works and authors subjected to sage critique is a healthy excercise.

In general, there is a lot of Great Pop out there. A lot of junk, but many gems as well. I have found that I enjoy blogging, so when I am not traveling, I will point to more good stuff. I created a "Great Pop" tag for that purpose. I hope you enjoy.

Chinese College Quiz

Every year, about ten million Chinese students compete for about five million college placements. A critical factor is the Chinese SAT, the main difference being that it lasts for two days.

The Chinese students call it Gaokao. Take a look at some of the open-ended essay questions. How would you do? Bear in mind that these questions are always tailored to the education the students go through in their schools, but it is still interesting to ponder.

Pictured is Tree, a Chinese student I met and became friends with on the way back from Japan to Shanghai. I hope he did well in his tests this year.